SiMON FRASER UNIVERSITY
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MEMORANDUM
0-0
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Senate
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From ?
Snate Committee on
Undergraduate Studies
Subject.
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New Course - G.S .227T.3
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Date...
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November. 15 .....
Action taken by the Senate Committee on Undergraduate
Studies at its meeting of October 30th, 1979 gives rise to
the following motion:
MOTION
That Senate approve and recommend approval to the
Board, as set out in S79-139, the proposed P'
e
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S22.7-3 On the ...5eriou sness
of the .iture
Note - G.S. 227 has been developed to complement the existing
course G.S. 427 (The Study of the Future) which has
been offered for more than ten years. The latter
course examines alternative responses to the fact
that the future entails serious problems. The pro-
posed course will examine alternative views of the
evidence that the future entails serious problems.
Although the subject matter of the two courses is
logically related, SCUS accepted the argument that
the courses will not entail undue overlap and that
neither need depend on the other.
-L
Daniel R. Birch
Chairman
DRB/pa
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SiMON FRASER UNIVERSITY
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MEMORANDUM
.Mx.. ..H.M...
..Evans.,...gitrar... .......................
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From
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Dr. Thomas W. Calvert, Dean
....Secr.e.ta.y.,...S.WS. .............................. .................... ..... ... .
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Faculty of Interdisciplinary Studies
Subject
........U.S......227..- 3 ?
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Date....
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O
ct
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I attach the proposal for G.S. 227 which was considered earlier by SCIJS.
This is resubmitted with some additional material and minor revisions to
the prerequisites.
j:tvJJf.
Thomas W. Calvert, Dean
TWC: j k
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Attach.
'1 .j
M;L
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SENATE C0IITTEE ON UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
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NEW
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COURSE
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PROPOSAL.
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FORM
Faculty. of Interdisciplinary Studies
Calendar Information ?
Department:______________________
Abbreviation Code:G,S.
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Course Number:
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227
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Credit Hours:
3
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Vector: 2-1
Title of Course:
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ON THE SERICIJSNESS OF THE FUTURE
Calendar Description of Course:
An exploration of the central controversies
concerning
the alleged seriousness of the future.
Nature of Course
A general introduction and overview designed
for
students normally
Prerequisites (or special instructions):
in their first two years of University
See attached.
What course (courses), if any, Is being dropped from the calendar if this course is
approved:
None
2. Schedulin
g
How frequently will the course be offered?
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Once or twice a year
Semester in which the course will first be offered?
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Summer, 1980
Which of your present faculty
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be available to make
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the proposed offering
possible?
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W.
Basil McDermott
i. ObjectivesoftheCourse
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To explore the following questions:
(4) What are the central issues that 'future watchers' worry about?
(2)
What criteria do different people use to establish priorities of worry and concern,
(3)
How are the major problem areas related to one another?
(4)
What are the implications of our inability to understand properly or to control
astutely any one of these problem areas?
4.
Budgetaryand Space Requirements (for information only)
What additional resources will be required in the following areas:
Faculty
None
Staff
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None
Library
There is adequate reference material on hand to enable students to do
introductory essays on the major themes in the course.
Audio Visual
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NPI
Space
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None
Equipment
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None
5.
Approval
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OCT 30
Date:
Department Chairman
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Dean ?
_
Chairman, SC1JS
•
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SCUS 73-34b:- (When
completing this form, for instructions see Memorandum SCUS 73-34a.
Aitac1i course outline).
?
COURSE OUTLINE ISATTACHED
New Course Proposal Form
G.S. 227-3
cont'd
PREREQUISITES:
30 hours, or permission of the In&ti'u&tor.
Students will find the following recommended courses helpful
in understanding alternative perspectives on contemporary and future
problems:
Hist 190-3 (Approaches to History)
Phil 100-3 (Human Knowledge, Its Nature and Scope)
Bisc 003-3 (Ecology and the Population Explosion)
Chem 003-3 (Chemistry, Technology and Society)
C'hem 004-3 (Pollution, Energy and Resources)
Geog 001-3 (The Geography of Technocratic Society
Psyc 106-3 (Social Issues)
Kin. 140-3 (Contemporary Health Issues)
S
New Course Proposal Form
G.S. 227-3
attach.
RELATIONSHIP OF G.S. 227 to G.S. 427 (THE STUDY OF THE FUTURE)
G.S. 227 was designed to complement the perspective on the
future that has evolved in G.S. 427 (The Study of the Future) which
has been taught on a regular basis since 1968. The focus of the lower
level course can be distinguished from the upper level one in the
following way:
1)
G.S. 227 is intended to present an overview on our
projected problems in different areas of life. It
focuses on the central controversies and how they
are related to one another. It attempts to evaluate
the criteria different people use to decide which
problems are more serious
I
than others. The central
question around which the lectures and readings
revolves is:
"Just how serious is the future likely to be?"
2) G.S. 427 has evolved considerably over the past decade
in terms of lectures, readings, and perspective. I
see the future focus of the course to revolve around
the question:
"What does it mean to be serious about the future?"
The course explores the nature of our available knowledge
upon which we must rely as we attempt to cope with various
problems
facing
us today, as well as tomorrow. Currently
I am focussing attention on the dilemmas that arise in
trying to deal with 'the commons problem' as originally set
forth by Garrett Hardin. The course considers alternative
views of what it means to be 'serious' about our persistent
problems and poses the uncongenial suggestion that we may
be unable to manage the future very well at all. Hence,
there is a consideration of the proposition that a serious
response to the future may involve a reluctant preparation
for protracted societal deterioration and decline. The
course also explores thenature of alternative 'control
systems' in relationship to the future.
S
ON THE SERIOUSNESS
OF
TUE
FUTURE
General Studies 227
Faculty of Interdisciplinary Studies
?
Simon Fraser University
Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada V5A 1S6
Dr. W. Basil McDermott
Office: CB 9213
Phone: 291-3763
INTRODUCFIQI
"In an
age when men have invented machines
to melt cities, an age in which war has
become the norm and in which the only
question is how hot or cold it is to be,
it should hardly be necessary to speak of
the seriousness of the future .
Yet I do not believe that most of us take
the future very seriously."
0 ?
-
?
Robert L. Heilbroner
I wish to speak with you about the seriousness of the future.
This is no easy task and at moments my resolve weakens and I am
strongly tempted to flee from the topic. For I painfully realize
that
even
if I desired to be serious about the future, there are
many obstacles that thwart my ability to do so. Indeed, the very
concept of 'the future' itself easily becomes a slippery metaphor
for 'all of reality' and as such comes to include all of our hopes
and fears. A concept or topic that seemingly includes 'everything'
thus lends itself to intense controversy. And this is one of the
first things we discover when we attempt to speak about 'the future':
People disagree about the prospects ahead. We will learn rather
quickly that some individuals are quite worried about the possibility,
probability, or even inevitability in their view, of an immensely
devastating
nuclear, biological, or chemical war that may extinguish
human life altogether. Or we may note that others argue the growing
world population (although they concede that the rate of growth is
slowing) will not become 'stabilized' prior to a series of cruel
famines. In addition, with an increase in human numbers concentrated
mostly in the poorer regions of the world, they can only forsee
greater human misery on the horizon. There are, moreover, those who
indict the 'industrialized' areas of the world for creating energy
shortages, vast patterns of pollution, inflation, unemployment, and
0
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unlivable cities. Furthermore, there is the special dread of those
who fear our delicate and fragile biosphere is rapidly being strained
beyond its limits, and that a climatic or biological 'collapse' may
occur. The cumulative picture of the future is thus a combination of
Armageddon, 1984, or the bleak, stark image of bestial existence
imagined by Thomas Hobbes to be the special reserve of humans living
outs 4
de the pale of civilization in a 'state of nature' in which life
is 'solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short.'
According to others this is an entirely outrageous view of the
future. To counter such expressions of fear, alarm, or, as they would
consider it, morbid fantasy, they point to the not inconsiderable
human achievements of our era. They readily concede that certain
crucial problems exist today but they quickly add that human ingenuity,
hard work, and the application of our current and growing scientific
knowledge will enable us to cope reasonably well. They would add, I
believe, that the prophets of doom and gloom have excessively exagger-
ated the seriousness of the alleged threats to human well being in the
future and have significantly underestimated our potential to respond
to the challenges of ourage.
But the question still remains: Just how serious is the future
likely to be? Is there any way to really know which problems are most
serious and what, if anything, can or should be done about them? Is
it possible to make sense out of the conflicting outlooks on the
potential seriousness of the future? This course attempts to provide
a way to explore such questions. It does so by examining the central
controversies now raging about the presumed seriousness of the future.
Unfortunately, there can be no ultimate resolution on most of these
matters. This is because "even if we obtained as much data about the
future as the historians have about the past, we would still be as
uncertain in our interpretations of the future as the historians are
in their interpretations of the past." (Fred C. Ikle) We must always
bear in mind that people disagree not simply about what they think may
occur in the future but also about what they would prefer to have happen.
In our exploration of the nature of the problems facing us, I shall
devote special attention to certain kinds of connections that exist
between different types of problems. Some of these connections may well
have surprising or unanticipated consequences for us.
Finally, in this brief introductory statement, permit me to add a
mild caveat. In my view no serious person can claim to have definitive
proof of what the future holds in store for us in all important respects.
Nevertheless, a lack of 'conclusive advance evidence' is not a sufficient
reason for refusing to assess, as best we can, the potential seriousness
of our assorted and interrelated problems. In a word, though all thought
about the future involves an unavoidable and uncomfortable element of
speculation, not all speculation is equally thoughtful or helpful. More
3
.
than a decade of 'futurewatching' has taught me how easy it is to be
careless in how we think about different aspects of the future. I shall
attempt in this course, therefore, to avoid as much carelessness as I
possibly can.
TEXTS
The required reading for the course consists of three books.
Throughout the course outline I have also indicated additional material
to which the student may wish to refer. Furthermore, one may consult
the additional reading lists at the end of two of the texts for the
course, The Tienty-Ninth Day, and The Next 200 Years. Within the
course outline itself I have attempted to keep such a list representative
of various 'positions' and 'outlooks' on different aspects of the future.
Everyone, I am sure, has his own favorite list of "the most relevant
books". Since it is impossible for anyone to keep pace with the growing
literature in this area, one is forced to be selective and hence run the
risk of excluding some book that another may think is highly important.
When you run across an individual who looks askance when you reluctantly
admit that you have not read a particular book he has just mentioned
(that person subtly hinting ever so gently that this book is 'crucial'
• ?
for a real understanding of the basic issues) let me suggest that you
ask the person to explain the central thesis of the book, along with
the evidence it draws upon to support such a thesis, so that you may
decide for yourself if it merits further attention. Fortunately when it
comes to the study of the future, there are many books exploring similar
themes. Indeed, if everyone had to read precisely the same books that
everyone else has read in order to come to a corresponding understanding
of what is to be discussed then our situation would indeed be more
difficult than it actually is. So before we eagerly insist that another
person read the latest book that we are enthused over, let us prepare
ourselves to give sound reasons why a person should expend his time and
energy in this manner.
Robert L. Heilbroner. An Inquiry Into the Human Prospect.
New York: Norton, 1975.
Herman Kahn, William Brown Leon Martel. The Next 200 Years.
New York: William Morrow, 1976.
Lester R. Brown. The Twenty-Ninth Day: Accomodating Human
Needs and Numbers to the Earth's Resources. New York:
Norton, 1978.
is
4
USE REJJRV1S
Grading for the course will be equally weighted on four activities:
(1) A term paper; (2) A Mid-Semester Examination; (3) The quality of
one's tutorial performance; and (4) a Final Examination.
LECTURES
I shall comiience with a general overview on how I have come to
think about the future as a result of more than a decade of 'future
watching' in my teaching and research. Then I shall devote some attention
to certain basic problems that arise when we attempt to predict, let alone
control, different aspects of the future. The fundamental emphasis of
the course, however, will concern an exploration of the major controver-
sies about the alleged seriousness of the future. I shall focus on the
following questions: (1) What are the central issues that future
watchers worry about? (2) How are these problems connected to one
another? (3) What criteria do different people use to establish priorities
of worry and concern? (4) What are the implications of our inability to
understand properly or to control astutely any one of these problems?
I.
WHAT TEN YEARS
OF TEACHING ABOUT ThE RYWRE HAVE
TAIJGHf ME
• . .
Some reservations about the sufficiency of our currently
growing knowledge to control the major problems of our
era
Required
Heilbroner, Chs. 1-2.
Reference
Kenneth E. Boulding. The Meaning of the Twentieth Century.
New York: Harper Colophon Books, 1964.
Robert L. Heilbroner. The Future as History. New York:
Harper Brothers, 1959.
II.
THE KING'S
MESSENGER PROBLEM
"If the news that you bring is dreaded to hear,
By the King and his Court, then you'd better have fear.
For he who bad tidings dares to report,
May find that his life has been cut quite short."
SJ
U
... 5
S
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•
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.
On
the role of psychological denial, selective
perception, and fear in our willingness to evaluate
the seriousness of different problems.
Required
Heilbroner, Chs. 3-4.
Reference
John Maddox. The Doomsday Syndrome. New York: McGraw-
Hill, l972
Edgar Goldsmith, et. al., "A Blue Print For Survival",
The Ecologist, Vol. 11:1 (January, 1972), 1-43.
III.
TIE
CRYSTAL BALL PROBLEM
"Though a man may be brave,
And willing right now,
To peer at the Future,
He may not know how."
W ?
. . .
On
the limits of various methods used to predict the
future
Or
"What can we really know about the future? Precious
little! But that little is precious." Kenneth Boulding
Required
Heilbroner, 127-178.
Reference
Bertrand '
de Jouvenel. The Art of Conjecture. New York:
Basic Books, 1964.
Victor Ferkiss. Futurology: Promise, Performance, Prospects.
Beverly Hills: Sage Publications, 1977.
Arthur C. Clarke. Profiles of the Future. New York: Harper
Row, 1958.
6
S
IV. T
HE- DOOMSDAY
PROBLEM:
REFIECIONS CN MODERN WARFARE TEC]-INOLOGY
"Some say the Bomb will have the Distinction,
Of leading our species on to Extinction."
• . . What are the alternative interpretations of the signi-
ficance of our accelerating weapons technology? In
what sense does the nature of modern warfare pose a
unique threat to the survival of life on our planet?
Required
Kahn, Cbs. 1-2.
Reference
Gordon R. Taylor. The Doomsday Book. London: Thames
Hudson, 1970.
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Yearbook
of World Armaments and Disarmament. New York:
Humanities Press. Yearly edition since 1968.
Kenneth
of
E.
Texas
Boulding.
Press, 1978.
Stable Peace. Austin: University
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5
V.
THE LIMITS 10 GROWTH CONTROVERSY
WNTROVERSY I: MAKING SSE OF THE BASIC
QJESTICf4S AND PERSPECTIVES IN DISPUTE
• . .
11
200 years ago almost everywhere human beings were com-
paratively few, poor and at the mercy of the forces of
nature, and 200 years from now, we expect, almost
everywhere they will be numerous, rich and in control
of the forces of nature." Herman Kahn
• . "Whether we are unable to sustain growth or unable to
tolerate it, the long era of industrial expansion is
now entering its final stages, and we must anticipate
the commencement of a new era of stationary total output
and (if population growth continues or an equitable
sharing among nations has not yet been attained) declin-
ing material output per head in the advanced nations."
Robert L. Heilbroner
Required
Kahn, Chs. 3-4.
?
0
7
Reference
Dennis L. Meadows, et al., The Limits to Growth: A
Report for thCii of Rome's Project on the
Predicament of Mankind. London: Earth Island
Ltd., 1972.
H.S.D.. Cole, C. Freeman, M. Jahoda, and K.L.R. Pavitt
(Eds.), Models of Doom: A Critique of the Limits
to Growth. New York: Universe, 1973.
M. Mesarovic and E. Pestel, Mankind at the Turning Point:
The Second Report to the Club of Rome. New York:
E.P. Dutton, 1974.
VI.
THE LIMITS 10 GROWTH CONTROVERSY II: ALTERNATIVE ENERGY RE(JIRE-
?.ENTS AND FUflJRE ASPIRATIt4S
• • . On the implications and potential consequences of the
increasing demand for both renewable and nonrenewable
sources of energy .
SRequired
Kahn, Chs. 5-6.
Reference
M. Olsen Hans H. Landsberg (eds.) The No-Growth Society.
New York: Norton, 1973.
Hazel Henderson. Creating Alternative Futures. Berkeley
Pub., 1978.
Fred Knelman. Anti-Nation: Transition to Sustainability.
Oakville, Ontario: Mosaic Press, 1979.
VII. THE LIMITS 10 GROWTH CONTROVERSY III: ALTERNATIVE KINDS OF
"CARRYING CAPACITIES" AND HOW THEY INTERACT WITH OTHER ASPECTS
OF LIFE
"The survival of man is in question.
Some say through a lack of reflection.
But it's hard to contain,
A yearning for gain,
Unless you enforce discretion."
0
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8
• . . "It is one thing to ponder how much we can 'take' from
the Earth; it is another to explore how nuch the Earth
can 'take' from assorted kinds
of
human activity."
Required
Kahn, Chs. 7-9.
Reference
Barry Comoner. The Closing Circle. New York: Knopf,
1972.
Gerard O'Neill. The High Frontier - Human Colonies in
Space. Bantam, 1978.
VIII.
THE LIMITS TO GROWTH (DNTROVERSY 1V: THE "MJRE" PROBLEM
"Millions yearn for immortality who do not know what to
do with themselves on a. rainy Sunday afternoon." Susan Ertz
Required
Brown, Chs. 1-3.
Reference
Fred Hirsch, Social Limits to Growth. Cambridge: Harvard,
1976.
Wassily Leontief, et al., Future of the World Economy: A
United Nations Study. Oxford University Press, 1977.
Dennis L. Meadows (Ed.), Alternatives to Growth I: A Search
for Sustainable Futures. Ballinger, 1977.
IX.
OF FJi4PN
MJ b
IBERS: TOWARD A UNIVERSAL POPULATICI'4 POLICY?
• . "The question is not so much, 'How many people can the
earth possibly maintain?' Rather, it is: "How many people
do we wish to live at what level of affluence, for what
period of time, and doing what sorts of things with their
time and energy?"
• . . What would a 'rational' population policy for the entire
world look like?
• ?
. ?
.
0
S
Required
Brown, Chs. 4-5.
Reference
G.
Hardin
El
J. Baden (eds.) Managing the Commons. San
Francisco: W.H. Freeman, 1977.
Aurelio Peccei.. The Human Quality. Pergainon, 1977.
X.
THE BIOQIEI43DICAL
1E1vOLUTliI4
"The price of immortality is a childless world."
• • . From the regulation of human numbers to the specification
of human characteristics. Where is our knowledge of life
processes taking us? How is this vast area of growing
knowledge related to other problems of the
future?
Required
Brown, (Is.
6-7.
Reference
Gordon
Woistenholine (ed.). Man and His Future. Boston:
Little, Brown and Company, 1963.
Gordon
R.
Taylor. The Biological Time Bomb. New York:
The World Publishing Co., 1968.
Joel Kurtzman
El
Philip Gordon. No More Dying: The Conquest
of Aging and the Extension of Human Life. Los Angeles:
J.P. Tarcher, Inc., 1976.
XI. CI
THE "LAW" OF
THE
CONSERVATION OF MISERY AND TROUBLE
"Ashes to ashes,
I).ist to dust,
If the Bomb doesn't get you,
The Pollution must."
• . . Why is it that one person's 'progress' has so often been
another person's pain?
... 10
10 .. ?
a
XI I.
.guired
Brown,
Chs. 8-9.
Reference
Barrington Moore Jr. Reflections on the Causes of Human
ton:Bedñ Certain Proposals to Elimate Them.
William
Press,
H. McNeil.
1976.
?
g1es and Peoples. New York: Anchor
F.M. Esfaridiary, Qpç4mism One (1970)
?
pWingers: A
Futurist Manifesto (1973). Fawcett Popular Library,
rm.
ON TAKING
DECLDE SERIOUSLY
An examination of both the difficulties and importance of
taking the prospects of decline more seriously than we
have to date
Required
Brown, Chs. 10-12.
Reference
Theodore Roszak.
P
erson/Planet: The Creative Disintegration
of Industrial Society. New York: Anchor Press, 197a.
Gordon Rattray Taylor. Rethink: A Paraprimjtive Solution.
New York: 1XIttofl1977.
Victor Ferkiss. The Future of Technological Civilization.
New York: ?
izfl1er,74
19.
