SiMON FRASER UNIVERSITY
?
!S7
.oa-?
MEMORANDUM
S
Senate ?
I
?
Senate Committee on
...........
?
.................................................. ... ........................................ . ...............
I
?
From................................................... . .............................................
1
Undergraduate Studies
................................................................................................................................
?
.... ?
. .. . ....
School ?
of ?
Business
?
AdministrakiDx ?
1980-06-18
Subiect
................
andEconoTni
cs......New
..
....course
?
DaTe .... ... ......
?
.
...... ...
.....
............. . ...... ..............
.................................. ..............
Action taken by the Senate Committee on Undergraduate
Studies at its meeting of 3 June 1980 gives rise to the
following motion:
MOTION
That Senate approve and recommend approval to
the Board of Governors, as set forth in S80-85,
the new course BUEC .4.4-5 (Forecasting in Business
and Economics).
FOR INFORMATION
• ?
Under the authority delegated to it,SCUS approved
the proposed change in credit hours for BUS. 444-5
(Marketing Research) from 4 semester hours to 5
semester hours. The change is to be effective for
the Fall semester 80-3. It has come about in order
to acknowledge the substantial workload required
of students because of the research involved in the
course.
S
SiMON FRASER UNIVERSITY
?
J cf'o
MEMORANDUM
1fr. ..Evans,Regia.
c.c.u.s.
New Course Proposal -
Subject..
.JE.
......
?
.
Business and Economics
From
......S
prt5
Secretary
c..................................
Arts Curriculum ..onimittee
Date .......
MAY. g].,.
The Faculty of Arts Curriculum Committee, at its meeting of May 8, 1980,
approved BUEC 433-5: Forecasting in Business and Economics, for permanent
inclusion in the calendar. This course was distributed to other faculties
on April 16th for overlap consideration. Please place it on the agenda of
the next meeting of S.C.U.S.
Thank you.
S. Roberts
La
c.c. M. Khan, Economics
• SR/md
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DESK
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Dean
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Chai-man,
SCUS
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SENATE
(HMITTEE
ON
UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
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APR
15 198w
?
NEW COURSE PROPOSAL FORM
?
FACULTY
Or f'
h._. ?
•
'.:dendjr Information
?
Department:BUS1neSS Administration
Abbreviation Code:
BUEC
?
- Cótrse Number:
43 3
?
Credit Hours:
?
Vector;(20)"
Fitle of
Course:
Forecasting in Business and Economics
Calendar Description of Course: Modern techniques of statistical, econometric,
population and technological forecasting are presented along with discussions of a
wide range of topics including Box-Jenkins methods, leading indicators, survey data,
world models and the use of information sets of increasing size. Applied work on
the Canadian and B.C. economies.
Natue
of
Course
Lecture/Tutorial
Prerequisites (or
special instructions):
BUEC 333
What course
(courses),
if
any,
is
being
dropped from the calendar if this course is
approved:
None.
2. Scheduling
Row frequently will the course be offered?
Once or twice per year depending on demand.
Semester in which the
course
will first be
offered?
813
Which
of your present
faculty
would be available
to
wake
the
proposed offering
possible? ?
R. Holmes,
D.
Maki,
E.
Love, P. Kennedy.
Obectives of the Course
To provide instruction on modern forecasting methods of use in applied economics and
business forecasting, and to provide experience in preparing forecasts of the Canadian
and B.C. economies. This course will draw on and supplement a forecasting research
program being developed in the Department of Business Administration.
4. Budgetary and Space Requirements (for information only)
What
additional resources will be required in the following areas:
Faculty
None
Staff ?
None
Library None
Audi' Visual None
"N
r
Space
Equipment
5. Approval
Dat
None
Computer time for students
'
_6S '/3-34b:- (When completing this
form, for instructions see
Memorandum
SCUS 73-34a.
ALtach
course outline).
Buec. 433
?
Forecasting in Business and
_JLJl4.
• ?
Course Outline
1.
Basic concepts
of Forecasting (types of forecasts, information
sets
and cost functions)
2.
Trend Fitting and Forecasting (linear, exponential, parabolic,
modified exponential, GomrtZ
and logistic trends)
3.
Time Series Models (autoregression and moving average models: the
Box-Jenkins approach)
4.
Regression Methods
and Econometrics Models (single and simultaneous
equation models)
5.
Survey
Data (anticipation data and surveys of forecasters)
6.
Leading Indicators
(finding and evaluating leading indicators)
7.
Evaluation
and Combination of Forecasts
8.
Population Forecasts
(population projections and birth-rate forecasts)
9.
Technological
Forecasts (growth curves, the Delphi and other methods)
10.
World
Models (the LINK and MOIRA models)
o
Buec.
433 ?
4nIist
?
0
Text: ?
C.W.J. Granger Forecastjg in Business and Economics.
Academic Press,
1980.
Other Readings bTopic
Basic Concepts and Trend Fittin
Armstrong, J. Scott Long Range Forecasting, from Crystal Ball to Comper,
Wiley, 1978.
Martino , J.P., Techno1gica1 Forecasting for Decision Making,
Amer. Elsevier,
1972.
Oakley, C.O. and Baker, J.C., "Least Squares and the 3.40 Minute Mile"
Mathematics Teacher,
70 (4) 322-324.
Time Series Models
Anderson, 0. Time Series Analysis and Forecasti
ng
: The Box-Jenkins
Approach, Butterworth, 1976.
Box, G.E. P. and Jenkins, J.M., Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Control,
Holden Day, 1970.
Winters,
P.R. "Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages"
Management Science 6, 324-42.
Regression
Methods and Econometric Models
Granger, C.W.J. and Morgenstern, 0. Predictability of Stock Market Prices,
Heath, 1970.
Klein, L.R. An Essay on the Theory of Economic Prediction, Markham, 1971.
P,ndyck, K.
and Rubinfeld,
D.L. Econometric Models
and Economic Forecasts,
McGraw Hill, 1976.
Leading Indicators
Hymans, Saul H. "On
the Use of Leading Indicators to Predict Cyclical Turning
Points" Brookings
Papers on Econometric Act1vity,No. 2, pp. 339-84.
Moore, G.H., "The Analysis of Economic Indicators" Scientific American,
232 (Jan.), 17-23.
is
Shjkin J. and LalnpQrt L.H.., "Indicator Forecasi tug" In Methods and
Fit Ii
of Business Forecasting, (Butler, W.F., Kavesh, R.A., and I'Iatt,
• ?
Prentice Hall,
1976.
Stekier, 0. and Schepman, M., "Forecasting with w index of Leading ;
Journal of the American Statistical AssociatioiI, 68, 291-295.
Yeats, A.J. "An Evaluation of the Predic.tive Ability of the FRB S
' 'ioi' i"
?
Price Index" Journal of the American Statistical AssociatIon, 36, 7H2
Evaluation and Combination
of Forecasts
Armstrong, J. Scott. Long-Range Forecasting from Crystal Ball to Computi
Wiley,
1978,
part 2.
Cooper, R.L. in Econometric Models of
Cyclical Behaviour (B. Hickman, ed.)
Columbia Univ. Press,
1972.
Granger, C.W.J. and Newbold, P. Forecasting Economic Time Series,
Academic Press,
1976,
Ch. 8.
Population Forecasting
Pressar, R. Demographic Analysis, Aldine: Atherton, 1972.
Technàlogical Forecasting
Gabor, D. Inventing
the Future, Secker and Warburg, 1963.
Kahn, H. The Next
200
Years: A Scenario for America and the World,
Morrow,
1976.
Kahn, H. and
Weiner,
A.J. The Year 2000, MacMillan, 1967.
Martino, J.P.,
Technological Forecasting for Decision Making, Amer. Elsevier,
1972.
World
Models
Bruc1nnin,
G. "A
Pre-evaluation of Moira" Technological Forecasting and
Social Change,
10, 21-26.
De Hoogh, J.
et.al .
"Food for a Growing World Population" Technological
Forecasting
and Social Chang, 10, 27, 51.
Forrester, J.W.,
World Dynamics, Wright-Allen, 1971.
Meadows, D.H. et.al
.
The Limits to Growth, New Amer. Library, 1972.
o
World Models
Meadows, D.H. et.àl.
?
yamics_of Growthi a Fthlte World, MIT
I'r€,
1)11,.
Nordhaus, W.D. "World Dynamics: Measurement
Without Data" Econonr
83, 1156-83.
Sussex Source Policy Research Unit, "Malthus
with a Computer" and oth.r
chapters Futures,
Ch. 5,
1973.
0
.1.
Date:
?
23 June 80
SF1.1
LIBRARY
COLLECTLON
EVALUATION
(To be completed
only for
new course
or program proposals.)
Course No. and Name or Program: BUEC 433-5, Forecasting in Business & Economics
Date to he offered:
?
Fall '81
2. Resources currently
in collection:
?
see attached survey
Reading lists. No. and 2 of titles available:
?
2
Related materials In general collection:
Monographs:
Serials Subscriptions:
Backfiles:
Other:
3. Recommended
additions to collection:
Monographs: normal buying should be sufficient.
date, as appropriate)
(Indicate approx. no. of titles, vols.,
?
COST
Monographs:
1
New serials subscriptions:
possibly 2
?
60.00
Other
Serials
(specify):
backftles:
possibly 1 of the above
?
150.00 ?
1
?
Total ?
$
210.00
4. ?
Comments:
The course appears to be adequately supported qualitatively.
If a large number of students take it a few extra copies of
ke
y
titles ma
y
be needed.
For Library
?
For Faculty epartment
I
Collection Survey for BUEC 433-5
The following lists were checked against SFU Library's collection to
determine support for this course:
1.
A reading list included with the course outline.
2.
The journal of business October 1978 issue.
?
Bibliographic references
on pages 562-4, 568, 576-7, 584, 592-3 and 600.
3.
Forecasting and
plannjUj
ed. by R. Fildea and P. Wood, Weatmead,
Gower Press, 1978. Bibliography, pp.100-104.
4.
Forecasting methods for management, 2d ed., by S.C. Wheelwright and
Spyros Makridakis. N.Y., Wiley, 1977. Chapter-end references.
5.
Books in print: subjects under 'Business forecasting' and 'Economic
forecasting'
The results of the checking were as follows:
Source
Books
Here ?
Not here
at SF13
Jrrl5
Here
?
Not here
at SF13
1
-
22
0
100
7
0
100
2
4
5
44
24
1
96
3
11
1
91
25
2
92.5
4
26
7
78.7
13
3
31
5
32
3
92
-
-
-
Total
95
16
85.5
69
6
92
Some of the monographs on these lists which the Library lacks are in
other languages or. deal with technological applications. Order cards
have been made for 2 titles it was felt we should acquire whether or
not the course is given.
Of 48 separate titles of journals mentioned, SFU Library has complete runs
of 36. Two subscriptions could be considered for purchase: Long range
planning and the Manchester Business School Working papers.
Necessary indexes, abstracts and reference works are already present in
the collection, which appears adequate to support the course.
SiMON FRASER UNIVERSITY
Sc tir ?o
MEMORANDUM
Sr
Secretary, S.C.U.S.
Change of Credit Ho rs
Subject..BU5.)4.4........
From .......
?
Roberts
Secretary
Arts
. ?
Curriculum Committee
Date......
4( .?.
?
...............................
The Faculty of Arts Curriculum Committee, at its meeting of May 8, 1980,
approved an increase of credit hours for
BUS.
11 44:
Marketing Research, from
hours to five hours. It was noted that there has been a corresponding
vector change. Would you please place this program on the agenda of the next
meeting of S.C.U.S.
Thank you.
£LQ,
S. Roberts
c.c. M. Khan, Economics
[11
MAY 2 2 iOO
REGISTRAR'S OFFICE
?
MAUI DESK
F'
M
I
r
-rt
?
t ?
e
(f am
III
S
C. o-cF
CHANGE OF CREDIT HOURS AND THE ADDITION OF SPECIAL INSTRUCTIONS
Bus. 444-4
TO
Bus. 444-5
(Comm 444-4)
p.
118, 1979/80
RATIONALE:
The work load in Comm 444 warrants the additional credit
hour. Further, the additional hour will allow students
time to do research into the use of computing methods on
marketing problems.
ADDITION: Students with credit for Comm 443-3 and Bus (Comm 444-4)
?
may not take this course for further credit.
Q,
4
-: ?
C,4FtPVG-E
Ofr
C,Oi7
SENATE COMMITTEE ON UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
?
'
It
S
c A.) L')/
CHANGE OF CREDIT HOURS AND THE ADDITION OF SPECIAL INSTRUCTIONS
1.
Calendar Information
?
Department Business Administration
Abbreviation Code: Bus.
?
Course Number: 444
?
Credit Hours: S Vector:3-2-0
Title of ourseMarketing Research
Calendar Description of Course: An introduction to the identification of marketing
problems, hypothesis formulation, data collection, processing and analysis;
examination of secondary and primary sources of information; experimental, survey
and clinical research designs; marketing, research proposals and presentation of
findings; the theory and application of sampling, measurement and testing.
Nature
of Course
Prerequisites (or
specialinstructions): Comm 343-3 and Econ/Comm 332-3. 60 credit
hours.
Corequisite Econ/Comm 333-3
Students with credit for Comm 443-3 and Bus.(Comm) 444-4 may not take this course for
further credit.
What course (courses), if any, is being dropped from the calendar if this course
is approved: None
2.
Scheduling
How
frequently will the course be offered?
Semester in which the course will first be offered?
Which of your present faculty would be available to make the proposed offering
possible?
3.
Objectives of the Course
4.
Budgetary and Space Requirements (for information only)
What additional resources will be required in the following areas:
Faculty
Staff
Library
Audio Visual
Space
Equipment
5.
Approval
Date: ?
/
l41t
Department Chairman
?
.T"
Chairman, SCUS
scus
73-34b:- (When completing this form, for instructions see Memorandum SCUS 73-34a.
Attach course outline).
&ON FRASER UNIVEI*!TY
Sc
LIX
Po
Air
MEMORANDUM
To ....... Mr.....vans, ReZistra.
.
From
Secretary, S.c.u.S. ?
Secretary
..................................................
s4t. f
.
Arts Curriculum..ittee
Change of Credit Hors
?
/
Subject..
P.U5..4-
.
?
Date......
The Faculty of Arts Curriculum Committee, at its meeting of May
8, 1980,
approved an increase of credit hours for BUS.
11414:
Marketing Research, from
.f,.hours to five hours. It was noted that there has been a corresponding
vector change. Would you please place this program on the agenda of the next
meeting OfS.C.U.S.
Thank you.
SiRoberts
c.c. M. Khan, Economics
•
RLEL 4E
MAY 2 2 1930
REGISTRAR'S OFFIcE
?
MAIL DESK
Li
C ?
/, th.
.-e
111111. ?
Corn"?
C. 20-SF
4 ?
CHANGE OF CREDIT HOURS AND THE ADDITION OF SPECIAL INSTRUCTIONS
Bus. 444-4
TO
Bus. 444-5
(Comm 444-4)
p.
118, 1979/80
RATIONALE:
The work load in Comm 444 warrants the additional credit
hour. Further, the additional hour will allow students
time to do research into the use of computing methods on
marketing problems.
ADDITION: Students with credit for Comm 443-3 and Bus (Comm 444-4)
?
may not take this course for further credit.
0
•1
o
S
?
w
SENATE COMMITTEE ON UNDERGRADUAT
E
S ?
0 (Art .5
c)iVL...''J
f
,
CHANCE OF CREDIT HOURS AND THE ADDITION OF SPECIAL INSTRUCTIONS
1.
Calendar Information
?
Department Business Administration
Abbreviation Code: Bus.
?
Course Number: 444
?
Credit Hours: 5 Vector:3-2-0
Title of course:Marketing Research
Calendar Description of Course: An introduction to the identification of marketing
problems, hypothesis formulation, data collection, processing and analysis;
examination of secondary and primary sources of information; experimental, survey
and clinical research designs; marketing, research proposals and presentation of
findings; the theory and application of sampling, measurement and testing.
Nature of Course
Prerequisites (or special instructions)-: Comm 343-3 and Econ/Comm 332-3. 60 credit
hours.
Corequisite: Econ/Comm 333-3
Students with credit for Comm 443-3 and Bus.(Comm) 444-4 may not take this course for
further credit.
What course (courses), if any, is being dropped from the calendar if this course
is approved: None
2.
Scheduling
*
How frequently
,
will the course be offered?
Semester in which the course will first be offered?
'
?
Which of your present faculty would be available to make the proposed offering
possible?
3.
Objectives of the Course
4i Budgetary and Space Requirements (for information only)
What additional resources will be required in the following areas:
• Faculty
Staff
Library
Audio Visual
Space
Equipment
5. Approval
Date: ?
/_I
Department Chairman
-
-
1ean ?
Chairman, SCUS
j ?
scus 73-34b:- (When completing this form, for instructions see Memorandum SCUS 73-34a.
Attach course outline).
